Iran: The genie is out of the bottle
By Karin Bergquist, Copenhagen, 15 June 2009
Young Iranians, who comprise 2/3 of the population, claim their stolen voices back, in historic demonstrations all over Iran.
‘It is not only fraud we witness - it’s a coup,’ writes my Iranian contact, an editor of a dynamic cultural website based in central Teheran.
He is referring to the recent election in Iran, which officially was won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But many doubt that this is the true election outcome. Some believe that the votes have been switched, meaning that 62.5% of votes cast were actually in favour of Mousavi, and 33.7% in favour of Ahmadinejad. Some 40 independent opinion polls before the election had estimated a majority to Mousavi. Many even tipped him to win in the first round.
Fraud? How come the first results of the election already appeared two hours after the last votes were cast, and the final result came early Saturday morning when all analysts had predicted the results to come late Saturday or even Sunday? 85% of the population voted. It takes time to count all these votes.
How come Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%, which is the hometown of Mousavi?
How come the text-messaging system of mobile phones went down on the election day, the most important weapon in the reform campaign of the reformists, targeting the youth? How come all other central communication means, which are so important to young Iranians – YouTube, CNN, BBC, Google and even the Hotmail-system – were cut off around midnight on election day? Maybe because young Iranians should not communicate to the world about the wrong result in the morning.
Shortly after midnight the Revolutionary Guards announced that they would not tolerate a ‘green revolution’ after publishing the results.
By the way, how come that the supporters, who voted for the very popular president Khatami in 1997 and again in 2001, have changed their views 180 degrees and now voted for Ahmadinejad?
In the last election Basij helped people to vote, and were seen to give more than one vote. It's easy to believe the same took place this time.
Coup? The supreme leader, ayatollah Hramenei, indirectly supported Ahmadinejad, while Ahmadinejad was strongly contested by Iran’s power figure nr. 2, Hashemi Rafsanjani, president for eight years after Ayatollah Khomeini.
Rafsanjani is now head of the Council of Experts, which chooses the supreme leader, and he is vice president of the Council of Expediency, which mediates between the parliament and the powerful Council of Guardians. Iranian politics has been a battlefield between these two men for the last 20 years.
According to analysts the president is mainly a puppet in the hands of strong power centers in Iran, among them the Revolutionary Guards, which are actively pulling the strings behind the scenes and uses the voluntary Basij to carry out its orders.
The Revolutionary Guards, also called Pasdaran, have gained strong economic power in recent years from the mismanagement of the Iranian economy under Ahmadinejad. They control the oil and the nuclear industry in a parallel economy outside the tax system. Under Ahmadinejad, who himself was a key person in the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war, they also placed themselves in the centre of the political power in Iran. The mullahs, who got rich from the big bazars in Teheran, are supported by only 10-15% of the population, and constant clashes take place between the clergy and Ahmadinejad.
Poor people in the countryside detest the rich clergy and support Ahmadinejad, because he promised them oil money and ‘justice’ shares in state firms. The growing middle class in Iran wants change but also fears it. They are afraid of losing their privileges. But they also want access to the political process. Women, who comprise a majority of the population, and young Iranians, want more cultural and personal freedom, better living conditions and jobs. The working class wants higher wages, which Ahmadinejad did secure lately, but better health and social security must still be put in place. The poor people have no aspirations for power, they believe in what they are told. But many wanted change.
During the last presidential elections in 2005 it was the boycott by young Iranians which brought Ahmadinejad to power in an election where only 60% of the population voted. This time the young Iranians woke up and participated. In this historic election, the voter participation was extremely high, 85%. The majority of the people voted mainly against Ahmadinejad - and not least the theocracy - but the world will never know for sure.
Many are still shocked and upset. Young Teheranis cry in the streets ‘Give us our votes back, Mousavi’ and ‘Where are our votes?’ They are so disappointed, and all the good energy from the previous days in the enlightened late-night campaigns has gone. Mousavi has appealed to the Council of Guardians to cancel the vote result. He accuses Ahmadinejad of being a traitor, claims Iran is moving towards a tyranny and he urges people to continue protests, but in a peaceful and lawful manner. Brave. Recently the Council of Guardians has promised to talk to the candidates and look into their claims.
Ahmadinejad, for his part, has promised prison sentences of up to two years for government critics. More radicalism and less democracy are expected.
What we have been witnessing is a soft revolution, organized by the government (or the triangle of Ahmedinejad-Pasdaran-Supreme Leader) against Rafsanjani and the reformists. All campaigns, TV debates, organizing of votes were aimed at washing out reformists and Rafsanjani. They did and won. Rhetoric is now being replaced by muscles. There is now a crack-down on all protestors and supporters of Mousavi. Some 100 opposition leaders have been arrested. The morality police have ended their holiday and the security forces are back in work. The party is over.
But the genie is out of the bottle...and a green tsunami is spreading to all Iranian cities. Not since the revolution in 1979 ‘Alluha Akbar’ is being shouted from the roofs in the night, meaning ‘Go out and protest against injustice’.
Karin Bergquist is a freelance journalist whose recent book, ‘Revolutionens børn - Unge i Teheran (The Children of the Revolution - Young People in Teheran), tells about life in Teheran seen by young people - about the difficulties of meeting the other gender, sexuality, contractual marriages, surveillance, punishment (including capital publishment), censorship, dress codes, rules for behavior, religion, the internet, cultural life, drugs, unemployment, the Iraq war, and desires to emigrate. We will see the consequences in the coming years.
Young Iranians, who comprise 2/3 of the population, claim their stolen voices back, in historic demonstrations all over Iran.
‘It is not only fraud we witness - it’s a coup,’ writes my Iranian contact, an editor of a dynamic cultural website based in central Teheran.
He is referring to the recent election in Iran, which officially was won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But many doubt that this is the true election outcome. Some believe that the votes have been switched, meaning that 62.5% of votes cast were actually in favour of Mousavi, and 33.7% in favour of Ahmadinejad. Some 40 independent opinion polls before the election had estimated a majority to Mousavi. Many even tipped him to win in the first round.
Fraud? How come the first results of the election already appeared two hours after the last votes were cast, and the final result came early Saturday morning when all analysts had predicted the results to come late Saturday or even Sunday? 85% of the population voted. It takes time to count all these votes.
How come Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%, which is the hometown of Mousavi?
How come the text-messaging system of mobile phones went down on the election day, the most important weapon in the reform campaign of the reformists, targeting the youth? How come all other central communication means, which are so important to young Iranians – YouTube, CNN, BBC, Google and even the Hotmail-system – were cut off around midnight on election day? Maybe because young Iranians should not communicate to the world about the wrong result in the morning.
Shortly after midnight the Revolutionary Guards announced that they would not tolerate a ‘green revolution’ after publishing the results.
By the way, how come that the supporters, who voted for the very popular president Khatami in 1997 and again in 2001, have changed their views 180 degrees and now voted for Ahmadinejad?
In the last election Basij helped people to vote, and were seen to give more than one vote. It's easy to believe the same took place this time.
Coup? The supreme leader, ayatollah Hramenei, indirectly supported Ahmadinejad, while Ahmadinejad was strongly contested by Iran’s power figure nr. 2, Hashemi Rafsanjani, president for eight years after Ayatollah Khomeini.
Rafsanjani is now head of the Council of Experts, which chooses the supreme leader, and he is vice president of the Council of Expediency, which mediates between the parliament and the powerful Council of Guardians. Iranian politics has been a battlefield between these two men for the last 20 years.
According to analysts the president is mainly a puppet in the hands of strong power centers in Iran, among them the Revolutionary Guards, which are actively pulling the strings behind the scenes and uses the voluntary Basij to carry out its orders.
The Revolutionary Guards, also called Pasdaran, have gained strong economic power in recent years from the mismanagement of the Iranian economy under Ahmadinejad. They control the oil and the nuclear industry in a parallel economy outside the tax system. Under Ahmadinejad, who himself was a key person in the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq war, they also placed themselves in the centre of the political power in Iran. The mullahs, who got rich from the big bazars in Teheran, are supported by only 10-15% of the population, and constant clashes take place between the clergy and Ahmadinejad.
Poor people in the countryside detest the rich clergy and support Ahmadinejad, because he promised them oil money and ‘justice’ shares in state firms. The growing middle class in Iran wants change but also fears it. They are afraid of losing their privileges. But they also want access to the political process. Women, who comprise a majority of the population, and young Iranians, want more cultural and personal freedom, better living conditions and jobs. The working class wants higher wages, which Ahmadinejad did secure lately, but better health and social security must still be put in place. The poor people have no aspirations for power, they believe in what they are told. But many wanted change.
During the last presidential elections in 2005 it was the boycott by young Iranians which brought Ahmadinejad to power in an election where only 60% of the population voted. This time the young Iranians woke up and participated. In this historic election, the voter participation was extremely high, 85%. The majority of the people voted mainly against Ahmadinejad - and not least the theocracy - but the world will never know for sure.
Many are still shocked and upset. Young Teheranis cry in the streets ‘Give us our votes back, Mousavi’ and ‘Where are our votes?’ They are so disappointed, and all the good energy from the previous days in the enlightened late-night campaigns has gone. Mousavi has appealed to the Council of Guardians to cancel the vote result. He accuses Ahmadinejad of being a traitor, claims Iran is moving towards a tyranny and he urges people to continue protests, but in a peaceful and lawful manner. Brave. Recently the Council of Guardians has promised to talk to the candidates and look into their claims.
Ahmadinejad, for his part, has promised prison sentences of up to two years for government critics. More radicalism and less democracy are expected.
What we have been witnessing is a soft revolution, organized by the government (or the triangle of Ahmedinejad-Pasdaran-Supreme Leader) against Rafsanjani and the reformists. All campaigns, TV debates, organizing of votes were aimed at washing out reformists and Rafsanjani. They did and won. Rhetoric is now being replaced by muscles. There is now a crack-down on all protestors and supporters of Mousavi. Some 100 opposition leaders have been arrested. The morality police have ended their holiday and the security forces are back in work. The party is over.
But the genie is out of the bottle...and a green tsunami is spreading to all Iranian cities. Not since the revolution in 1979 ‘Alluha Akbar’ is being shouted from the roofs in the night, meaning ‘Go out and protest against injustice’.
Karin Bergquist is a freelance journalist whose recent book, ‘Revolutionens børn - Unge i Teheran (The Children of the Revolution - Young People in Teheran), tells about life in Teheran seen by young people - about the difficulties of meeting the other gender, sexuality, contractual marriages, surveillance, punishment (including capital publishment), censorship, dress codes, rules for behavior, religion, the internet, cultural life, drugs, unemployment, the Iraq war, and desires to emigrate. We will see the consequences in the coming years.
Add a Comment
About
© 2012 Created by foxylens.
Powered by
You need to be a member of The Copenhagen Voice to add comments!
Join The Copenhagen Voice